Tariffs, trade, and diseases are the largest challenges to the industry.

by Moe Agostino and Abhinesh Gopal, Farms.com Risk Management

The 2025 global pork production is expected to grow by one percent thanks to a recovery from ASF (African Swine Fever). Animal diseases like ASF in China and PRRS (porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome) virus in North America continue to remain a headwind for further gains in global hog production. However, there is a surplus of pork supplies in the US, China, and Brazil and a deficit (tighter supply) in Japan, the EU, and the Philippines.

But the latest wrinkle comes from the new US global tariffs that are sure to disrupt trade, as evidenced by the recent cancellation by China of 12,000 mt of US pork. Potential US tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada could lead to retaliatory measures, impacting global pork trade flows. Mexico is the largest buyer of US pork at 40 percent of total annual imports. Canada is ranked fifth among pork buyers from the US, and China buys one in five US pigs. Lower feed costs and high hog productivity alongside record-high US beef prices could create more US domestic demand for pork and offset these challenges (US hog supplies are tighter by 3.3 percent year over year) as pork is the cheaper meat alternative.

PRRS and ASF continue to pose a threat to farmers’ productivity and exports, prompting investment in solutions like vaccines, biosecurity, automation, digitalization, and artificial intelligence to address animal health, sustainability, and animal welfare. The industry is also investing in sensors to monitor and diagnose diseases.

Hog prices in the US are expected to rise from lower production, but US tariffs could derail the party. Prices in China are expected to fall from increased pork production, with strong prices expected in Japan and Southeast Asia. Brazil’s hog prices are expected to remain steady, while prices in the EU are projected to see steady-to-seasonal price increases from lower production.

Pork demand is expected to rise in the US and Brazil, where beef supplies remain tight. An end to the Russian-Ukraine war could lower global feed costs further, as more competition and grain feed production would be introduced from the Black Sea region, as well as lower pork production costs. However, Germany’s foot-and-mouth disease outbreak will disrupt global meat trade flows.

Global pork producers remain cautious and hesitant to expand despite better profitability vs. last year due to the uncertainty from increased disease and US tariffs and a higher trade cost amidst a promising demand outlook for 2025.

A 2025/26 global recession could result from an escalating US global trade war - the newest Black Swan event (metaphorically, a rare, unpredictable event with a significant impact, often beyond what’s normally expected, but one that everyone will later swear they saw coming) that will disrupt global supply chains like COVID did in 2020.

It could see global meat demand in higher-priced cuts like beef and lamb fall as inflation is reignited and global consumption falls as consumers cut back on discretionary spending. Long-term trends like urbanization and increased per capita income in developing countries continue to drive global meat demand higher.

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